Oil Crisis & Prices — Iran Israel USA War

🛢️ OIL WAR INTELLIGENCE — NASA FIRMS + LIVE PRICES + SCENARIO ANALYSIS

OIL FIELD WAR MAP

Real-time tracking of oil field fires, refinery attacks and pipeline sabotage across Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. NASA FIRMS thermal anomaly data overlaid on oil infrastructure. Economic impact calculator: destroyed wells → barrel loss → Brent price spike. How the USA-Israel-Iran conflict, Houthi Red Sea blockade and OPEC decisions impact global crude prices.

LIVE OIL PRICES

BRENT CRUDE (USD/BBL)

FETCHING...

WTI CRUDE (USD/BBL)

FETCHING...

NATURAL GAS (USD/MMBtu)

FETCHING...

HORMUZ STRAIT STATUS

🚨 CLOSED — DAY 9

20% GLOBAL OIL BLOCKED — RECORD DISRUPTION

ECONOMIC IMPACT CALCULATOR

DESTROYED WELLS → BARREL LOSS → BRENT PRICE IMPACT

NUMBER OF WELLS DESTROYED

→

AVG. BARRELS/DAY PER WELL

DAILY BARREL LOSS

150,000

WORLD SUPPLY IMPACT

%0.15

EST. BRENT IMPACT

+$1.2

ALERT LEVEL

LOW

🔥 NASA FIRMS — THERMAL ANOMALY DETECTION ON OIL FIELDS

VIIRS/MODIS LIVE DATA

NASA Thermal Anomaly (fire/flare)

Oil Field / Refinery

At-Risk Infrastructure

Conflict Zone

IRAN OIL FIELD — WELL INVENTORY

WELL NAME	FIELD	PROVINCE	OUTPUT (BPD)	STATUS	THREAT
Ahvaz-3	Ahvaz-Bangestan	Khuzestan	85,000	AT RISK	⚠️ HIGH
Gachsaran-12	Gachsaran	Kohgiluyeh	62,000	ACTIVE	⚡ MED
Marun-5	Marun	Khuzestan	74,000	ACTIVE	⚡ MED
Karanj-7	Karanj	Khuzestan	48,000	AT RISK	⚠️ HIGH
Bibi Hakimeh-2	Bibi Hakimeh	Fars	55,000	ACTIVE	✅ LOW
Rag-e-Sefid-9	Rag-e-Sefid	Lorestan	38,000	REDUCED	⚡ MED
Pazanan-4	Pazanan	Khuzestan	41,000	ACTIVE	✅ LOW
Shadegan-6	Shadegan	Khuzestan	29,000	FIRE ALERT	🔴 CRITICAL
Haft Kel-11	Haft Kel	Khuzestan	32,000	AT RISK	⚠️ HIGH
Ramshir-3	Ramshir	Khuzestan	21,000	ACTIVE	✅ LOW

MAJOR FIELDS — SCENARIO ANALYSIS

🇮🇷 KHUZESTAN COMPLEX

IRAN — ABADAN + AHVAZ

⚠️ AT RISK

DAILY OUTPUT

2.1M BBL

WORLD SHARE

%2.1

PRICE IMPACT

+%6→+%14

EST. RISE

+$5–$12

IF OFFLINE: Brent could hit $92–$100/bbl — 2019 Aramco attack precedent

🇸🇦 GHAWAR FIELD

SAUDI ARABIA — WORLD'S LARGEST

✅ ACTIVE

DAILY OUTPUT

3.8M BBL

WORLD SHARE

%3.8

PRICE IMPACT

+%12→+%25

EST. RISE

+$10–$22

Houthi drone range covers this field. Hit = Brent $100–$110/bbl

🇮🇶 RUMAILA FIELD

IRAQ — BASRA PROVINCE

⚠️ MILITIA RISK

DAILY OUTPUT

1.4M BBL

WORLD SHARE

%1.4

PRICE IMPACT

+%4→+%9

EST. RISE

+$3–$8

Iran-aligned PMF near this field. Escalation = supply risk. Brent: $88–$96/bbl

🇮🇷 SOUTH PARS GAS

IRAN — PERSIAN GULF

🎯 STRATEGIC TARGET

GAS OUTPUT

700M m³/d

WORLD GAS %

GAS IMPACT

+%15→+%30

REGION

PERSIAN GULF

World's largest gas field. Israeli strike = European gas crisis

🌊 HORMUZ STRAIT — GLOBAL CHOKEPOINT

IRAN CONTROL — 20% WORLD OIL

⚠️ TENSION HIGH

DAILY TANKERS

~21M BBL

WORLD SHARE

%20

IF CLOSED

+%40→+%70

PRICE SPIKE

$120–$160

CRITICAL: Iran threatens Hormuz closure. Full closure = GLOBAL OIL SHOCK — $120–$160/bbl

🔥 BURNING OIL WELLS — LIVE PRICE IMPACT TRACKER

CONFIRMED FIRES + ESTIMATED BRENT CRUDE PRICE IMPACT · UPDATED FROM OSINT + NASA FIRMS

TOTAL ACTIVE FIRES THIS CONFLICT

BPD DISRUPTED (CONFIRMED)

BRENT PRICE CONTRIBUTION

+$0

% OF WORLD SUPPLY OFFLINE

STATUS	WELL / FIELD	COUNTRY	BPD OFFLINE	% WORLD	BRENT +$	CAUSE	SINCE

📊 PRICE IMPACT METHODOLOGY

SMALL SHOCK (<0.5% supply)

×0.8 elasticity

Minor disruption — OPEC+ spare capacity absorbs quickly. Price bump short-lived.

MEDIUM SHOCK (0.5–2% supply)

×1.5–2.8 elasticity

Market panics. Strategic reserves tapped. 2019 Aramco attack reference (+15% overnight).

MAJOR SHOCK (>2% supply)

×4.5–7.0 elasticity

Structural deficit. $150+ scenario. 1973 Oil Crisis reference (+400% over 12 months).

HORMUZ CLOSURE (>20% supply)

×10–15 elasticity

Black swan event. No precedent. Qatar warns $150/bbl+. Current scenario active.

📈 HISTORICAL BENCHMARKS

2019 Aramco Attack

5.7M bpd offline (5.7% world) — overnight +15%

+$9.50

2022 Russia Sanctions

3M bpd removed (3% world) — +30% over 2 weeks

+$29.00

1973 Oil Crisis

7% embargo — +400% over 12 months

×5 price

🔴 CURRENT (Hormuz D9)

20% supply blocked — WTI +35% this week alone

+$47.90

🎯 BRENT PRICE FORECAST — FIRE SCENARIOS

SCENARIO	FIELDS AFFECTED	BPD LOSS	BRENT NOW	BRENT +7D	BRENT +30D	RISK
Khuzestan Only	Ahvaz, Marun, Aghajari	2.1M	$108	$118–122	$112–116	ACTIVE
Iran + Iraq Fields	Khuzestan + Rumaila + West Qurna	6.0M	$108	$135–145	$128–138	HIGH RISK
+ Ghawar Strike	Above + Saudi Arabia main field	11.7M	$108	$160–200	$150–180	EXTREME
+ South Pars Gas	Above + Iran main gas field	11.7M+	$108	$200+	$180–220	CATASTROPHIC

⚠️ DISCLAIMER: All price impact figures are scenario estimates based on historical data (2019 Aramco attack, 1973 Oil Crisis, 2022 Russia-Ukraine). Actual prices depend on OPEC+ response, strategic reserves, and geopolitical developments. NOT financial advice. NASA FIRMS data shown for informational purposes.